Tag Archives: forex trading

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Gold price forms a base at US$1,194

 

Gold prices have been range bound in recent trading session as traders await the nonfarm payroll data. Bullion Index report to its clients that while  the ADP Employment numbers for February are out later today in the U.S. that they do not expect to see any surprises and expect Friday’s nonfarms to be the key to driving gold in the short term. Bullion Index notes that spot gold is range bounce between US$1,194 and US$1,224. They maintain a buy limit at US$1,188oz.

Source: http://www.bullionindex.com.au

 

 

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Sell NZD/USD at 0.7600 limit – UBS

 

Swiss Bank UBS has suggested to clients to go short NZD. They report “NZD/USD should head lower. Sell rallies to 0.7600 with stops above 0.7720, targeting an eventual retest of 0.7300/0.7175″. Selling NZD against the USD is popular among brokers at the moment with BNZ also suggesting a short trade on NZD/USD.

Sell on limit at 0.7600, stop above 0.7720 with a limit at 0.7300 or lower.

Source: UBS

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UBS – Sell USD/CAD rallies to 1.2570

 

While other brokers such as SEB and SwissQuote recommend clients to look short USD/CAD, UBS has taken a different view noting USD/CAD “remains stuck right in the middle of the recent trading range. We expect the range play to continue. Sell rallies to 1.2570 with stops above 1.2670 and buy on dips to 1.24 with stops below 1.23″.

Source: UBS

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SwissQuote buy USD/CAD recommendation

 

SwissQuote report to clients that the “USD/CAD has seen a pickup in buying interest near the key support area between 1.2352 and 1.2314. However, the succession of lower highs remains thus far intact. Hourly resistances can
now be found at 1.2566 (02/03/2015 high) and 1.2664. An hourly support lies at 1.2449 (27/02/2015 low).

In the longer term, the technical structure looks like a rounding bottom whose maximum upside potential is given by the strong resistance at 1.3065 (09/03/2009 high). The recent weakness is seen as a medium-term corrective phase. Key supports stand at 1.2314 (22/01/2015 low) and 1.2047 (intraday low)”.

Buy limit 2 units at 1.2363, Obj: Close unit 1 at 1.2646, remaining at 1.2950, Stop: 1.2290

Source: SwissQuote

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NZDUSD Buyers nervous ahead of RBNZ’s Wheeler keynote speach

 

NZDUSD sellers enjoyed selling the pair recently as buyers struggled to break the 07810-20 resistance area. Captial Trust Markets reports “if the RBNZ sticks with the dovish tone, then more losses cannot be denied moving ahead.

Technical Analysis

There are a couple of important bearish trend lines formed on the 4 hour chart of the NZDUSD pair. One of the trend lines recently acted as a barrier for the Kiwi buyers, which also coincided with 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7977 high to 0.7660 low. So, a failure to move above the mentioned confluence area can be seen as a completion of correction. The NZDUSD pair is now trading below all three key simple moving averages – 100, 200 and 50. We can consider this as another bearish sign, which might encourage sellers in the near term. The 4H RSI is just floating around the 50 level, and if it breaks it, then it will add to the bearish pressure on the pair.

NZDUSD - 11.11.2014

On the upside, initial resistance can be seen around the 50 SMA, followed by the first bearish trend line which is just sitting below 100 and 200 SMA’s. In short, there are several hurdles on the way up for the pair as it approaches major risk events.

NZ Financial Stability Report

New Zealand Financial Stability Report will be released by Reserve Bank of New Zealand during the upcoming Asian session. It would be interesting to see what the central bank has to say about the soundness and efficiency of the New Zealand financial system. Any negative remarks to weigh on NZDUSD moving ahead”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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FX recommendation – Buy AUDNZD

 

ANZ suggest clients to take a tactical long trade on AUDNZD. They report “with the AUD/USD trading closer to fair value and near its 2014 lows further downside requires some shift in fundamentals to provide the impetus for a
move.

Currently the signals that we are receiving are somewhat mixed. Domestic dynamics are neutral, while those in China are becoming more positive. In the near-term, a sparse US data calendar means that the USD (the likely catalyst of the downside break in the AUD) is going to be range-bound, awaiting a catalyst to resume its appreciation. Domestic dynamics are neutral as the RBA remains on hold, and the economy remains relatively stable at below trend levels. This was borne out in the recent RBA minutes where the bank repeated the phrase that “the most prudent course was likely to be a period of stability in interest rates”.

On the other-hand, in China, there is some evidence that we are nearing a trough for growth:
• Septembers IP report showed stabilisation;
• Commodities have found a near-term base and
steel prices are rising again;
• Property sales volumes picked up during the
golden week;
• Interest rates are falling, possibly indicating that
credit easing is finally working its way through the
system; and
• PMIs are highlighting that the external pulse is also
improving with export orders series rising.

In the near-term this could provide some upside for the AUD – though we caution that this will be a tactical shift, rather than a true fundamental shift. Recently there has been a significant short-term relationship between the AUD and commodity prices and so any recovery in China is likely to have an impact on the AUD. We still think that the broad trend for the Chinese economy is towards a less credit driven, lower investment intensity structure, which will have lower multipliers. This is highlighted by the relationship between the China economic surprise index and the AUD. It shows that, while a directional relationship remains, and some upside should be expected on a China recovery, the beta is lower than it was.

However, the beta is still positive and upside is likely if, as we expect, the Chinese economy has found a near-term base.

We think that this AUD rally is tactical, rather than strategic. Using the end of 2013/early 2014 as a blueprint, we think strength should not be extrapolated too far. In that instance we saw liquidity selectively injected into the system, yields then fell, and growth stabilised. The authorities then tightened liquidity again. The same pattern is likely to play out again this time, with stabilisation as the primary policy goal. When this is achieved, broader structural goals are likely to dominate, and liquidity will once again be restricted.

However, like in March, positioning is short and expectations are low and as such a tactical opportunity exists for the AUD. This is best expressed through buying AUD/NZD at 1.1015, with a stop just below the 200DMA at 1.0850, and an initial target at the high of 1.13“.

anz audnzd oct14

(Source: ANZ)