Tag Archives: jpy

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EUR/JPY heading to 145.66

 

Capital Trust Markets reports “EUR/JPY bulls look to 145.66 as a possible target following a strong break above 143.50 resistance level.

Technical Analysis

EURJPY13thNovember

EUR/JPY has been trading around a key pivot level for the past two weeks, first rejecting off 143.50-144.20 without a bearish continuation, only to cross above this level on Tuesday 11th November. Spot is currently around 144.44 half-way through the 13th/11 U.S. trading session, with a strong bullish bias after a successful re-test and bounce of 143.50, this time performed from above.

Stochastic remains at extreme overbought levels on Daily, indicating a temporary top and a deeper correct are both long overdue. That being said, swing configuration maintains a higher highs and higher lows structure, pointing to future gains in the next trading sessions. Depending how EUR/JPY reacts at 145.66, coupled with reactions post-GDP reports on Friday, we could see the start of a correction soon, since the most recent bullish swing is showing a considerable slow-down in the uptrend.

Based on the current technical landscape, if EUR/JPY fails to rally higher and turns around, a break below 143.33 will invalidate the Higher Lows structure. This should trigger a stop hunt from long positions accumulated below this area, pushing EUR/JPY back to 141.00″.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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CAD/JPY buyers eye 104.50 as Yen heads lower

 

Capital Trust Markets reports “CAD/JPY stayed bullish even through a major downswing from 99.81 down to 92.89, respecting a higher high – higher low swing configuration. This allowed the pair to bounce back and we are now seeing traders eye a fresh multi-year Higher High.

Technical Analysis

CADJPY12thNovember

Apparently there is nothing that can stop CAD/JPY from rallying even higher. Last week price closed above 101.04, where many were expecting some kind of temporary correction off 2013’s high. A bounce failed to materialize and buying momentum simply ate through all the sell orders placed in this area. On Tuesday the Japanese Yen tripped even lower on disappointing data, allowing a strong rally +120 pip rally. This helped the pair consolidate above resistance, paving the way for future gains as the pair enters uncharted territory since 2008.

Stochastic is showing overbought conditions on all timeframes from 4H all the way up to Monthly. This suggests a major correction is around the corner, however with price action heavily skewered towards fresh gains, we will stick to long positions until a bearish signal appears.

Towards the downside, albeit already at a decent distance, 101.04 is the primary support level to be watched. A return below this level should warn traders of deeper correction potential, while a bounce will suggest uptrend continuation”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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USD/JPY Breaks resistance – new target 117.50

 

Capital Trust Markets reports “market participants are showing renewed interest in selling JPY across the board, with USD/JPY already priced above a major resistance level.

Technical Analysis

USDJPY11thNovember

Late last week, USD/JPY showed several weakness signals post-NFP, forming a double top reversal pattern over the course of two days. This weakness was followed by a moderate drop down to 113.82, approximately 170 pips from top to bottom; as a result we cannot complain that pattern didn’t pan out as planned, at least in intraday trading.

Since the 10th/11 U.S. trading session, however, buying momentum began building again at a steady pace, lifting USD/JPY up to last week’s resistance and ultimately above. Spot is currently trading around 115.60, as the pair is about the re-test 115.50 from above. If this level holds and USD/JPY continues to trade above resistance, traders will focus on 117.50/60 next, a price pivot level dating back to 2007, which could also be an intermediary target on the way towards 120.00 in the long term.

Stochastic is warning of extreme overbought conditions on all major timeframes, but with no price action signs confirming a correction and while the Higher Highs & Higher Lows swing configuration holds, buying dips and resistance breakouts remains the preferred strategy”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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Double top to drive CADJPY back below 100

 

Capital Trust Markets reports “bearish technical signals are starting to add up, favoring a correction lower for CAD/JPY following a 830 pip upswing. More confirmations are needed, although a speculative short position at current levels could result in a large R:R if the double top chart pattern plays out right.

Technical Analysis

CADJPY6thNovWeekly

 

CAD/JPY buyers are finally reacting to a resistance level for the first time in three weeks. Spot is currently trading at 100.40 during 6th/11 U.S. session, down from a high of 101.20 reached during Asian trading. Based on overbought conditions and a negative RSI divergence showing on the Weekly chart, this rejection could lead to a temporary consolidation phase or a deeper correction in the coming days and weeks. This, of course, depends on price stabilizing below 101.04.

CADJPY6thNovember4H

 

On the 4H chart we can spot a double top reversal pattern in the incipient phases. Today’s top was confirmed by a bearish engulfing bar, which helps determine risk for a potential short entry. Since there was little to no follow-up in intraday trading, we propose initiating short positions on a break below the major psychological handle of 100.00. Such a break would immediately target 99.27, CAD/JPY’s most recent Higher Low. As the chart clearly shows, a secondary support target is located at 97.70, only if price manages to invalidate the Higher Low swing structure with a break below 99.25.

On the other hand, if CAD/JPY rallies and ultimately stabilizes above 101.04/20, buying momentum could lift the pair up to 104.00 within a very short period of time, with long-term targets extending as high as 107.50″.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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CADJPY target 100 on break above 97.70

 

After two weeks defined predominantly by large rallies Capital Trust Markets reports “CAD/JPY has finally reached a crucial resistance level that will probably set the overall direction for the first half of November.

Technical Analysis

CADJPY30thOctober

Half way through the 30th/10 U.S. session, CAD/JPY spot is currently trading around 97.70 as buyers test a major price pivot zone. From a technical perspective this rally appeared likely to exhaust on the first resistance touch based on the size of previous bullish swings. Stochastic has already entered overbought territory on Daily, indicating a temporary top followed by a correction should materialize in the near future. That being said, price action has to confirm this view in the end.

CAD/JPY respects a configuration of higher lows and higher highs on 4H timeframe and a steep trendline offers support at 96.75/85, with a secondary support cluster formed around 95.80 (38.2% Fib, 50 & 100 Moving Averages on 4Hour and a small pivot zone). These targets should only be considered in case of a strong bearish rejection from this 97.70/90.

On the other hand, for a solid uptrend continuation, CAD/JPY buyers should patiently wait for price to stabilize above 97.70 and for a second confirmation in the form of a re-test followed by a bullish rejection. Only then higher resistance levels around 99.10 – 100.00 should be considered as proper targets for the immediate future”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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NZDJPY upside remains limited

 

Capital Trust Markets reports “despite entering bullish territory NZD/JPY remains in a long-term downtrend, thus upside is very limited. Traders should view this temporary correction as a change to sell the pair high when the next bearish signal appears.

Technical Analysis

NZDJPY29thOctober

The New Zealand Dollar is likely to end the 4th consecutive day in the positive against several major counterparts, including USD, EUR and JPY. Out of this lot, NZD/JPY buyers displayed the biggest show of force on Wednesday, when price rallied above a major price pivot line at 85.80 (level also strengthened by 200 Simple Moving Average on 4H timeframe).

With a bullish structure of higher lows and higher highs since 15th October, NZD/JPY could extend gains for a little while in order to complete its correction up to 86.81 (61.8% retracement level from 88.97 down to 83.32). On Daily, 100-Day and 200-Day Simple Moving Averages are slowly declining near 87, almost guaranteeing a bearish bounce if price reaches this level. Stochastic is currently entering overbought territory on Daily, also suggesting upside should be limited in the near future.

It remains to be seen how NZD/JPY will react post-RBNZ’s Rate Statement due out Wednesday evening. A slow return below 85.80 will not turn the pair bearish immediately, since HH LH structure and a bullish channel need to be invalidated first. Support lies over 120 pips lower, at 84.60, offering buyers plenty of breathing room to recover, no matter what happens today”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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USDJPY look for traction above 108.10 – OCBC Bank

 

OCBC Bank report to clients on the USD-JPY, that “amid growing voices calling for a delay in the sales tax hike and recovering risk appetite levels, any resumption of broad based dollar strength may see the pair continuing to drift higher. On the CFTC front, net leveraged net shorts were pared in the latest week but note that these numbers pre-dated the subsequent improvement in global risk appetite levels. In the near term, stay on the lookout for any traction above 108.10, with any sustained breach likely to pave the way to the recent highs around 110.00 multi-session. On the downside however, 106.80 may beckon if investor sentiment fizzles”.

(Source: OCBC Bank)

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CHFJPY buyers looking to 114.12 target

 

Capital Trust Markets reports the “Swiss Franc is showing strong bullish intentions against Yen as short positions unwind at a face pace.

Technical Analysis

CHFJPY23rdOctober

CHF/JPY 4H Chart

CHF/JPY technical landscape has been very predictable in recent weeks, without any fake signals, at first respecting a bearish configuration and more recently forming a strong reversal pattern. With a relatively light news calendar, we expect traders to act in a foreseeable way during today’s U.S. trading session and early next week as well.

After last week’s downtrend invalidation, when price broke rallied above the most recent lower highs at 112.80 and 112.95, CHF/JPY retraced for most of this week. Once price hit 61.8% retracement level was hit in the early hours on Thursday, large offers lifted price throughout the day, forming a bullish engulfing bar on Daily.

Spot is currently trading around 113.45. Sellers are still defending 113.50 (20th October high, 200 Moving Average on 4H and 38.2% Fibonacci level on September – October downswing), yet bullish momentum still points to a breakout. A successful breach and close above 113.50 will confirm CHF/JPY is turning bullish from a swing perspective. Upside targets are begin at 114.10 (50% Fib), with a large resistance cluster between 114.50 and 115 being the main area of attraction for buyers”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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EURJPY buyers eye short term gains

 

On Thursday Euro managed to completely turn the tables against a weakening Yen. Capital Trust Markets reports “EUR/JPY shows multiple bullish technical signals, all pointing to future gains toward 138 and possibly even 139.15.

Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY rally began in the early hours of European session; when Euro sentiment received a boost as Spanish Unemployment Rate unexpectedly dropped to 23.7% while German and Euro-zone PMIs finally showed signs of stabilizing.

EURJPY23rdOctober

Late last week EUR/JPY showed the first reversal signs following its 700 pip sell-off down from 141 to 134. A large bullish Pin bar led buyers above the resistance trendline, also invalidating the Lower Highs swing structure. Unfortunately this rally was short-lived, with EUR/JPY falling back as market participants appeared reluctant with the newly found direction.

Today’s rally confirms a bullish perspective, since a higher Low was formed on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level based on last week’s upswing. Price action is showing a large Bullish Engulfing bar as EUR/JPY is currently trading around 136.88. 20th October high at 137.00 was briefly tested during the U.S. session. A rally above this level will constitute a fresh buy signal, prompting buyers to target the 200-SMA line at 137.73 and the large pivot zone at 138.00. A secondary upside target resides at 139.15, where the 200-Day Moving Average will likely cap any rallies on their first attempt.

This newly formed bullish scenario is likely to remain valid as long EUR/JPY maintains a Higher High/Higher Low configuration above 135.22″.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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Sell AUDJPY – JP Morgan

 

JP Morgan suggest to clients to get short AUDJPY. They report “many factors make AUD vulnerable to additional
declines: rich valuations, sensitivity to global growth concerns through lower commodity prices as well higher
volatility, and finally the upcoming CPI report. The market has already taken down its expectations for inflation and is looking for a benign outcome for 3Q given the repeal of the carbon tax but J.P. Morgan forecasts (0.3%q/q for headline, 0.4% for the core) are still below that of the market (0.4% for the headline and 0.55% for the core). If our forecast is realized, it would leave 6M annualized rates of headline and core inflation around the bottom of the RBA’s target band and would reinforce the idea that risks are biased towards more disinflation in Australia than currently forecast by the RBA. Finally, RBA minutes to be released next week should also be interesting as they will focus on RBA’s shifting narrative on China. By contrast, JPY will be the only currency that is insulated against a further decline in oil prices and will benefit if vol increases further.

Sell AUD/JPY in cash at 93.50. Stop at 95.25“.

(Source: JP Morgan)