Tag Archives: nzd

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Sell NZD/USD at 0.7600 limit – UBS

 

Swiss Bank UBS has suggested to clients to go short NZD. They report “NZD/USD should head lower. Sell rallies to 0.7600 with stops above 0.7720, targeting an eventual retest of 0.7300/0.7175″. Selling NZD against the USD is popular among brokers at the moment with BNZ also suggesting a short trade on NZD/USD.

Sell on limit at 0.7600, stop above 0.7720 with a limit at 0.7300 or lower.

Source: UBS

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NZD/USD Look To Re-Enter Strategic Short – BNZ

 

BNZ look To re-enter a strategic short position on NZD/USD. In a note to clients they report “NZD has bounced back admirably from cyclical lows hit after the RBNZ dropped its tightening bias. But the medium-term outlook is still negative, even with recent strong gains in dairy prices at auctions. We would consider rallies toward 0.76 as
opportunities to enter strategic short positions, targeting 0.70″.

They also note “we feel that levels above 0.7550 offer attractive risk-reward for a strategic NZD/USD short, on the premise that the mega-rally in the USD continues to grind higher. We would set a wide stop, 0.77 or higher, as is prudent in volatile markets such as these”.

Sell NZD/USD at 0.7550, stop >0.7700 with a profit target of 0.7000.

Source: BNZ

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Reduction in NZD short positioning

 

SwissQuote report “net short positions in New-Zealand dollar have been reduced from elevated levels. Even if NZD/USD is more sensitive to the upside given the large net short NZD positions, the technical structure remains negative as long as prices remain below the key resistance at 0.8052 (04/02/2014 low)”.

swissquote nzd nov14

(Source: SwissQuote)

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Dovish Bank of England a negative for GBP

 

ANZ report “the BoE was unambiguously more dovish in its November Quarterly Inflation Report. There was a notable downgrade in the bank’s inflation forecast and softening in the outlook for GDP growth.

• Wages are responding to the employment gains of the past year or so as spare capacity shrinks. In part due to its weaker inflation outlook, the BoE looks for real annual earnings growth of around 2% by the end of 2015.

• In such a subdued environment for inflation, it is difficult for the BoE to justify a normalisation in policy rates in the near term. Prospects for a H1 2015 rise in the bank rate have been reduced. This is negative for sterling near term and will act as a constraint on GBP vs USD, AUD and NZD”.

(Source: ANZ)

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NZDUSD Buyers nervous ahead of RBNZ’s Wheeler keynote speach

 

NZDUSD sellers enjoyed selling the pair recently as buyers struggled to break the 07810-20 resistance area. Captial Trust Markets reports “if the RBNZ sticks with the dovish tone, then more losses cannot be denied moving ahead.

Technical Analysis

There are a couple of important bearish trend lines formed on the 4 hour chart of the NZDUSD pair. One of the trend lines recently acted as a barrier for the Kiwi buyers, which also coincided with 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7977 high to 0.7660 low. So, a failure to move above the mentioned confluence area can be seen as a completion of correction. The NZDUSD pair is now trading below all three key simple moving averages – 100, 200 and 50. We can consider this as another bearish sign, which might encourage sellers in the near term. The 4H RSI is just floating around the 50 level, and if it breaks it, then it will add to the bearish pressure on the pair.

NZDUSD - 11.11.2014

On the upside, initial resistance can be seen around the 50 SMA, followed by the first bearish trend line which is just sitting below 100 and 200 SMA’s. In short, there are several hurdles on the way up for the pair as it approaches major risk events.

NZ Financial Stability Report

New Zealand Financial Stability Report will be released by Reserve Bank of New Zealand during the upcoming Asian session. It would be interesting to see what the central bank has to say about the soundness and efficiency of the New Zealand financial system. Any negative remarks to weigh on NZDUSD moving ahead”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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Bullish price action signals showing for NZD/USD

 

Capital Trust Markets reports “don’t fall for rumors that a major USD correction is coming, at least not just yet. Before all else, wait for technical confirmations around the main resistance areas.

Technical Analysis

NZDUSD10thNovember

NZD/USD traded near the edge for all of last week, at a huge technical crossroad, 0.7660/80 support area from June 2013 to be more precise. Post NFP, when all the news was digested, greenback bulls eventually caved based on worse-than-expected U.S. data. This allowed the Kiwi to rally and close the day with a large bullish engulfing bar, signaling a potential recovery for this week.

Friday’s bullish reaction saw a modest continuation in Asian trading and during the first half of the European session on Monday. Traders pushed NZD/USD up to 0.7793, where the bullish rally ended based on insufficient economical triggers to push higher. From a swing configuration perspective NZD/USD downtrend remains intact, with Lower Highs and Lower Lows.

While everyone believes the USD gains have overextended in recent weeks, traders should refrain from targeting higher levels for now. A huge resistance confluence lies around 0.7841, marked by previous Lower High, 100 and 200 Simple Moving averages on 4H. Unless the pair can rally above this levels and completely turn bullish (with targets at 0.7975 and 0.8050) NZD/USD will remain at risk for further losses in the near future”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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AUDNZD sellers looking to break 1.1200

 

Following two failures to overcome the resistance at 1.1300, Capital Trust Markets reports “traders have now turned their attention towards the support at 1.1200.

Technical Analysis

While recent price action indicated a strong bullish momentum buildup for AUD/NZD, the pair has been trading within a very large range since late July, with significant boundaries located at 1.1300 (resistance) and 1.0925 (support). Spot is currently trading around 1.1225, down for a second consecutive day. Sellers will most likely take another shot at 1.1200 tonight, with a successful break potentially paving the road for more losses.

AUDNZD4thNovember

A dip below 1.2000 will invalidate last week’s Higher Low and a four day range, triggering a cluster of stop losses accumulated from long positions. This should push AUD/NZD lower, at a minimum down to 1.1100/37 (large price pivot area strengthened by 200 Simple Moving Average on 4H and 50-Day SMA). Stochastic is turning lower from overbought territory on Daily, confirming a potential top followed by a correction lower. Even lower and traders will set their targets on 1.1000 support trendline and potentially a large crossroad for the long-term technical landscape.

Based on the rejection off the resistance at 1.1300, the uptrend will only be reactivated on a clean break and daily close above this level”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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NZDUSD Traders targeting 0.7710 – likely to be hit next week

 

Steady grinds higher followed by extremely fast sell-offs has been NZD/USD distinguished mark in recent weeks. Capital Trust Markets reports “based on today’s technical landscape, confirmed by fundamental triggers, the pair is pursuing a fresh lower low.

Technical Analysis

NZDUSD31stOctober

Similarly with AUD/USD, NZD/USD price action has been quite tricky in recent weeks. Although U.S. economic recovery is undeniable and greenback strength dominates all around, traders preferred a zig-zag approach, baiting buyers on several occasions only to lead them to the slaughterhouse. After two identical repeats of the same event, buyers refused to be fooled for a third consecutive time. On our 4H chart, NZD/USD couldn’t correct higher before selling pressure exploded.

Spot is currently trading around 0.7785 in the early hours of U.S. trading. A large bearish engulfing bar has formed on 4H and a continuation below 0.7766 could lead to the same pattern forming on Daily as well.

0.7700/10 represents the main area of attraction for sellers, marked by 29th September and 6th October double lows. Stop losses from short positions will begin to accumulate just above today’s high, at approximately 0.7880. Only a rally above this level could trigger a bullish reversal, however this appears unlikely at this point”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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NZDJPY upside remains limited

 

Capital Trust Markets reports “despite entering bullish territory NZD/JPY remains in a long-term downtrend, thus upside is very limited. Traders should view this temporary correction as a change to sell the pair high when the next bearish signal appears.

Technical Analysis

NZDJPY29thOctober

The New Zealand Dollar is likely to end the 4th consecutive day in the positive against several major counterparts, including USD, EUR and JPY. Out of this lot, NZD/JPY buyers displayed the biggest show of force on Wednesday, when price rallied above a major price pivot line at 85.80 (level also strengthened by 200 Simple Moving Average on 4H timeframe).

With a bullish structure of higher lows and higher highs since 15th October, NZD/JPY could extend gains for a little while in order to complete its correction up to 86.81 (61.8% retracement level from 88.97 down to 83.32). On Daily, 100-Day and 200-Day Simple Moving Averages are slowly declining near 87, almost guaranteeing a bearish bounce if price reaches this level. Stochastic is currently entering overbought territory on Daily, also suggesting upside should be limited in the near future.

It remains to be seen how NZD/JPY will react post-RBNZ’s Rate Statement due out Wednesday evening. A slow return below 85.80 will not turn the pair bearish immediately, since HH LH structure and a bullish channel need to be invalidated first. Support lies over 120 pips lower, at 84.60, offering buyers plenty of breathing room to recover, no matter what happens today”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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Key NZD data out shortly as traders look to 0.7817

 

Late on Tuesday evening, ANZ will report its latest business confidence figure out of New Zealand.

Capital Trust Markets reports “at a time when the New Zealand economy – and its sustainable growth – are in question as a result of the continuing slowdown in China, the figure could have a large impact in the value of the New Zealand dollar versus its major counterparts in the event of anything unexpected. As we head into the release, what are the levels to keep an eye on, and how can we draw profit from any volatility? Let’s take a look.

First, what’s happening in New Zealand at the moment? Well, the big news is the reelection of Prime Minister John Key. Key is widely credited as being the driving force behind the resurgent New Zealand economy over the past eight months, and his attention to details far as government budget is concerned is being hailed as a template from which leaders of other developed nations across the world can learn. However, external forces that are beyond his control of seemingly having a dampening effect on the nation’s growth at the moment. The Chinese property market is waning, and with this decline has come a dip in retail activity and industrial production. This – in turn – has led to a reduction in Chinese demand for New Zealand’s exports. Going forward, if we see this decline continue, we may see it filter through to certain sectors of the New Zealand economy such as business confidence and – in turn – employment. This is why the upcoming ANZ report is so important, and why it could inject considerable amount of volatility into the NZDUSD. So what are the levels to keep an eye on? Take a look at the NZDUSD chart below.

2014-10-28_16-51-29

The New Zealand dollar is down nearly 1000 pips from highs earlier on in the year, but looks to have staged something of a medium-term correction over the past couple of weeks. Now, however, the pair is trading just shy of its 200 SMA on the four hour chart, with in term support at 0.79 flat looking vulnerable. If we get a disappointing release out of New Zealand this evening, look for a break below this level to validate 0.7817 medium-term”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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EURNZD further losses expected

 

Euro suffered a broad sell-off against a basket of currencies on Tuesday. Among other pairs, EUR/NZD tumbled below a 2-week range with Capital Trust Markets reporting it “signals more losses in the near future.

Technical Analysis

EURNZD21stOctober

While it’s still early in the day to make definitive conclusions, today’s euro weakness is likely to persist, leading into a much deeper sell-off as the long term downtrends take over the markets once again. EUR/NZD has been predominantly choppy for two weeks now, with price action stuck in a very narrow range between 1.6015 and 1.6200/50. From a technical perspective price, stayed on the bullish side during this period, above the 200 SMA on 4H and Daily, coupled with consistent higher swing lows.

Consequently, today’s break is viewed as a strong bearish signal now that sellers are searching for a new lower low. While 200 SMA acts as resistance EUR/NZD is going to aim lower. 50-Dau and 100-Day are unlikely to represent huge resistance levels. Instead, we see 1.5700 as a huge attraction point, based on previous reactions which confirmed this level as a strong pivot zone.

Daily stochastic is heading towards oversold territory; however there’s still plenty of room for this move to develop even further. Bears should watch out for possible reversals back above 1.6000. Price stabilizing in this region could trigger a prolonged period of choppy behavior”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)