Gold Trading Week Ahead – 20 April 2015
Gold treaded water last week with gold finishing the week almost identical to where it closed the previous week. Last week was all about CPI data while this week we have a number of economic, political and cultural factors that will drive sentiment.
European indices have seen sentiment begin to turn after the initial enthusiasm for Mario Dragi’s QE. Greece is also back in the spotlight, the Eurozone has a crucial meeting later this week regarding Greece. A Greek default is certainly figuring in traders’ minds, with this increased concerns I expect demand for gold to increase.
Demand from both India and China has been weak in recent trading sessions, not entirely surprising given the recent strength of the U.S. dollar and the fact that many Indian buyers have been awaiting Akshaya Tritiya which is Tuesday 21st April. I expect Indian demand will increase this week as Akshaya Tritiya is considered auspicious for starting new businesses, investments and the like.
This week is packed with economic data that could set the direction for precious metals.
Monday the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index data for March is released.
Tuesday sees the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes released, if the RBA signals that is moving closer to a rate cut then we may see gold in AUD edge higher.
Wednesday will see the release of the Bank of England (BoE) minutes, Australian CPI, US Existing Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories.
Thursday is full of economic data with Manufacturing PMI data out for Japan and China, UK Retail Sales, US New Home Sales and importantly US Jobless Claims. Westpac is forecasting a drop in Jobless Claims to 286,000, down from 294,000 as at the last reading.
Friday the Eurozone will meet to discuss Greece and its further reforms that it needs to provide by Friday. The odds of a Greek default are certainly shortening with Friday being the next critical hurdle for Greece and the Eurozone. US Durable Goods Order data is also out later on Friday, the market is expecting a rise of 0.6%.
This week also sees the release of a number of key US company announcements which will give investors a better understanding of the strength of these key companies. The companies with announcements include Wal-Mart, Yahoo, IBM, Morgan Stanley, AT&T, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Facebook, Microsoft, 3M, Procter & Gamble, Costco and Starbucks.
It could be a volatile week across all markets this week, with gold set to benefit, I expect to see gold test the US$1,220/oz resistance level, a level gold needs to consolidate above this level before moving higher.
Courtesy of: www.bullionindex.com.au