Tag Archives: week ahead

FXC Gold Image

Gold Trading Week Ahead 20th April 2015

 

Gold Trading Week Ahead – 20 April 2015

Gold treaded water last week with gold finishing the week almost identical to where it closed the previous week. Last week was all about CPI data while this week we have a number of economic, political and cultural factors that will drive sentiment.

European indices have seen sentiment begin to turn after the initial enthusiasm for Mario Dragi’s QE. Greece is also back in the spotlight, the Eurozone has a crucial meeting later this week regarding Greece. A Greek default is certainly figuring in traders’ minds, with this increased concerns I expect demand for gold to increase.

Demand from both India and China has been weak in recent trading sessions, not entirely surprising given the recent strength of the U.S. dollar and the fact that many Indian buyers have been awaiting Akshaya Tritiya which is Tuesday 21st April. I expect Indian demand will increase this week as Akshaya Tritiya is considered auspicious for starting new businesses, investments and the like.

This week is packed with economic data that could set the direction for precious metals.

Monday the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index data for March is released.

Tuesday sees the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes released, if the RBA signals that is moving closer to a rate cut then we may see gold in AUD edge higher.

Wednesday will see the release of the Bank of England (BoE) minutes, Australian CPI, US Existing Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories.

Thursday is full of economic data with Manufacturing PMI data out for Japan and China, UK Retail Sales, US New Home Sales and importantly US Jobless Claims. Westpac is forecasting a drop in Jobless Claims to 286,000, down from 294,000 as at the last reading.

Friday the Eurozone will meet to discuss Greece and its further reforms that it needs to provide by Friday. The odds of a Greek default are certainly shortening with Friday being the next critical hurdle for Greece and the Eurozone. US Durable Goods Order data is also out later on Friday, the market is expecting a rise of 0.6%.

This week also sees the release of a number of key US company announcements which will give investors a better understanding of the strength of these key companies. The companies with announcements include Wal-Mart, Yahoo, IBM, Morgan Stanley, AT&T, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Facebook, Microsoft, 3M, Procter & Gamble, Costco and Starbucks.

It could be a volatile week across all markets this week, with gold set to benefit, I expect to see gold test the US$1,220/oz resistance level, a level gold needs to consolidate above this level before moving higher.

******

Courtesy of:  www.bullionindex.com.au

FXC Gold Image

Gold Trading Week Ahead

 

Bullion Index report: Late last week gold managed to stem the recent losses as the dollar rally paused. An 8 day run of consecutive losses on gold came to an end on Thursday, not before posting a new 4 month low.

Last week we saw solid buying from our clients at the low US$1,150’s/oz levels.

This week is going to be a key week for gold with the Federal Reserve’s two day policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. The main focus will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference following the FOMC announcement at 2pm Wednesday New York time. The price of gold is being driven almost solely by US dollar movements at the moment (dollar up, gold down or dollar down, gold up), so if any wording coming out of the Fed next week hints at a June rate rise, look to see further US dollar strength and gold soften. If the Fed notes that it still remains ‘patient’, the market is going to take that as a post June rate rise which should give gold a boost. Gold investors should also look out for any commentary from Yellen surrounding the US dollar. Traditionally the Fed would not mention the US dollar however given its stunning run it may play a factor in the Fed’s monetary policy. If it does come into play then the Fed may look to hold off tightening until later on in the year or even possibly next year.

The Fed is facing one of its biggest decisions since the GFC, they do not want to go too early or too late when it comes to raising interest rates.

The other events of the week that gold traders should be aware of include; ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech on Monday, US Building Permits and Housing Starts on Tuesday, Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Decision and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index both on Thursday.

I do not expect to see any further big moves on gold until after Yellen’s press conference on Wednesday. Between the open on Monday and her press conference I expect to see investors adding to long gold trades on any dips.

Investors have been showing more interest in platinum in the past week as they look for value, platinum has recently hit lows not seen since mid-2009.

Gold closed at US$1,158.60oz in New York on Friday, down US$10oz on the week.

******

Courtesy of:  www.bullionindex.com.au