Tag Archives: yen

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Australian dollar against Japanese yen set for gains in the near term


Capital Trust Markets reports “the Aussie dollar has shown a lot of resiliency against most major currencies recently, raising the case of more upside in pairs like AUDUSD and AUDJPY.

Technical Analysis

There are a couple of important trend line formed on the 4 hour chart of the AUDJPY pair, which are likely to act as a support for the pair moving ahead. The pair recently climbed towards 102.80 area where it found sellers, and is currently trading lower. There is a chance that the pair might spike lower towards the first bullish trend line, which is also sitting around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last leg from the 98.05 low to 102.83 high. Moreover, there is one more bullish trend line, connecting lows sitting just below the first trend line. So, there is a lot of support around the 101.80-60 area where buyers are likely to take a stand. If the pair continues to trade higher from the current or lower levels, then initial hurdle is around the last swing high of 102.83, followed by the all-important 103.00 area.

AUDJPY 11.24.2014

On the other hand, if the AUDJPY pair breaks the highlighted support zone, then it is likely to head towards the 100 simple moving average (SMA) – 4H, which is around the 50% fib retracement level.

Moving Ahead

There is no major release in Australia in the coming sessions, but in Japan the BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes will be released during the next Asian session. We need to see how the Yen pairs react after the release. Overall, buying dips is a good idea in AUDJPY moving ahead”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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EUR/JPY heading to 145.66


Capital Trust Markets reports “EUR/JPY bulls look to 145.66 as a possible target following a strong break above 143.50 resistance level.

Technical Analysis


EUR/JPY has been trading around a key pivot level for the past two weeks, first rejecting off 143.50-144.20 without a bearish continuation, only to cross above this level on Tuesday 11th November. Spot is currently around 144.44 half-way through the 13th/11 U.S. trading session, with a strong bullish bias after a successful re-test and bounce of 143.50, this time performed from above.

Stochastic remains at extreme overbought levels on Daily, indicating a temporary top and a deeper correct are both long overdue. That being said, swing configuration maintains a higher highs and higher lows structure, pointing to future gains in the next trading sessions. Depending how EUR/JPY reacts at 145.66, coupled with reactions post-GDP reports on Friday, we could see the start of a correction soon, since the most recent bullish swing is showing a considerable slow-down in the uptrend.

Based on the current technical landscape, if EUR/JPY fails to rally higher and turns around, a break below 143.33 will invalidate the Higher Lows structure. This should trigger a stop hunt from long positions accumulated below this area, pushing EUR/JPY back to 141.00″.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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CAD/JPY buyers eye 104.50 as Yen heads lower


Capital Trust Markets reports “CAD/JPY stayed bullish even through a major downswing from 99.81 down to 92.89, respecting a higher high – higher low swing configuration. This allowed the pair to bounce back and we are now seeing traders eye a fresh multi-year Higher High.

Technical Analysis


Apparently there is nothing that can stop CAD/JPY from rallying even higher. Last week price closed above 101.04, where many were expecting some kind of temporary correction off 2013’s high. A bounce failed to materialize and buying momentum simply ate through all the sell orders placed in this area. On Tuesday the Japanese Yen tripped even lower on disappointing data, allowing a strong rally +120 pip rally. This helped the pair consolidate above resistance, paving the way for future gains as the pair enters uncharted territory since 2008.

Stochastic is showing overbought conditions on all timeframes from 4H all the way up to Monthly. This suggests a major correction is around the corner, however with price action heavily skewered towards fresh gains, we will stick to long positions until a bearish signal appears.

Towards the downside, albeit already at a decent distance, 101.04 is the primary support level to be watched. A return below this level should warn traders of deeper correction potential, while a bounce will suggest uptrend continuation”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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USD/JPY Breaks resistance – new target 117.50


Capital Trust Markets reports “market participants are showing renewed interest in selling JPY across the board, with USD/JPY already priced above a major resistance level.

Technical Analysis


Late last week, USD/JPY showed several weakness signals post-NFP, forming a double top reversal pattern over the course of two days. This weakness was followed by a moderate drop down to 113.82, approximately 170 pips from top to bottom; as a result we cannot complain that pattern didn’t pan out as planned, at least in intraday trading.

Since the 10th/11 U.S. trading session, however, buying momentum began building again at a steady pace, lifting USD/JPY up to last week’s resistance and ultimately above. Spot is currently trading around 115.60, as the pair is about the re-test 115.50 from above. If this level holds and USD/JPY continues to trade above resistance, traders will focus on 117.50/60 next, a price pivot level dating back to 2007, which could also be an intermediary target on the way towards 120.00 in the long term.

Stochastic is warning of extreme overbought conditions on all major timeframes, but with no price action signs confirming a correction and while the Higher Highs & Higher Lows swing configuration holds, buying dips and resistance breakouts remains the preferred strategy”.

(Source: Capital Trust Markets)

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USDJPY further gains expected


SwissQuote favour further gains for USDJPY. They report “Japanese inflation expectations are declining Hawkish expectations on US monetary policy have recently done the heavy lifting in USD/JPY. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to contribute more actively in the coming months. Indeed, as its monetary policy is highly focused on the inflation target, pressures are mounting on the BoJ to provide more support to inflation. This is especially true as inflation surveys do not match the BoJ’s outlook.

Households surveys show that a huge majority expects a slight rise, mostly caused by increases in food and gasoline prices. More durable drivers like wages are not expected. Coupled with weakening growth potential expectations, household surveys indicate that the “Abenomics” effect is wearing off.

The inflation outlook from corporations, which was recently added in the quarterly Tankan, also highlights a more modest view on inflation than the BoJ. Indeed, none of the enterprises surveyed see inflation higher than 2% (excluding the VAT effect) even on a 5-year horizon. Finally, economists surveys and market expectations (through the 5y5y inflation swap) also confirm a weakening outlook, suggesting that without additional easing from the BoJ, the 2% target is unlikely to be met.

The second round of sales tax hike unlikely to be postponed A postponement of the second phase of the sales tax rise is unlikely as it would further undermine the credibility of Abe’s structural reforms while damaging the relationships with the Ministry of Finance and the BoJ, as both entity endorse a further rise. As a result, conditions are likely to be increasingly supportive (especially for the Nikkei) in the near future to favour the endorsement of the second sales tax hike and to cushion any negative effects caused by it. Among regional spending programs, a lower corporate tax and GPIF diversifications, stimulus from the BoJ is expected. As a result, any weakness in USD/JPY should only be temporary”.

SwissQuote usdjpy oct14

(Source: SwissQuote)